Zone 2- Africa- Micro Analysis-Violence in Guinea- Military Dictatorship, a vicious cycle?- Week # 85-87, Dated 13th Sept- 3rd Oct. 09'

Human rights groups reported at least 157 opposition supporters dead and around 1200 injured after Guinea's troops opened fire on a mass protest in Guinea last week. On September 28th Opposition parties organized the demonstration amid speculation that Moussa Dadis Camara, the country's military leader, would stand in the forthcoming elections. Camara, who has not yet formally announced his intention to contest the January 31 poll, said that the killings were beyond his control.

The protests against Camara's candidature were brutally crushed by the military forces and have invited international condemnation and human rights uproar. The loss of discipline by the military that even the premier claims out of his control, perpetuated a violent assault on human rights in Guinea. The violence was censured by France, Guinea’s former colonizers, at the United Nations as well as by the African Union, where sanctions were already in effect by the latter organization.

Camara, who came to power in a coup on 23 December last year, initially promised to organize elections but has since signaled he has not ruled out running. The military leader had pledged not to stand for the presidency when he seized power after the death of Lasana Conte, the president, essentially considered a military dictator in civilian guise. Camara has reportedly changed his tune proclaiming it his ‘right’ to contest.

Guinea has had a history of authoritarian rule since gaining its independence from France in 1958. Declining economic conditions and popular dissatisfaction with corruption and bad governance prompted two massive strikes in 2006, and a third nationwide strike in early 2007. This latest crackdown has been termed by the Human Rights Watch as "shocking even by the abusive standards of Guinea's coup government".

The destabilizing turn of events in the region follows a history of military dictatorships where even the latest coup, according to analysts, enjoyed popular support initially. However the rising dissatisfaction amongst the nationals has arisen in what is deemed to be a breach of a tacit agreement between the military and civil forces, which had hence far kept Camara in power.

The language of military dictatorships seems to share commonalities world wide as to their conflict of legitimacy. Where international pressures seem to be heeded in similar scenarios in Latin America (the recent Honduran case) or the Asian region (Pakistan being a case in point), the extent of efficacy of these measures in Africa seems puny. The crisis in Guinea continues, and despite efforts at resolution many fear the vicious cycle of dictatorship will continue.

Discussion Questions:

· Would you agree that the military dictatorships in Africa continue to function in relative isolation from international pressures? Why or why not?

· To what extent do strategic interests, for example the possibility of oil development in the region figure in determining the course of Guinea’s political future?

· Under notions of a continent that is defying its stereotypes- does the continued existence of such stunted political systems deem Africa's progress as marginal?

Related Links/Bibliography

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8280603.stm
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2009/09/200992981337765437.html
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/gv.html

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Zone 2- Africa Summary, Week # 85, 86 & 87; Dated 13th Sept-3rd Oct, 09'.

Politics of Security and Conflict Issues

West Africa: Prospects for Cote d'Ivoire's belated presidential elections being held on November 29 looked brighter with the completion of the contested provisional voter registration list.
In the meanwhile in Nigeria one of the key militants, leader of the Niger-Delta Vigilante and Patriotic Force (NDVPF), Mr Ateke Tom, has surrendered availing the Presidential Amnesty granted by the Federal Government; while the 49th Independence Anniversary in the nation was celebrated amidst threats from suspected religious groups causing disruptions.

East Africa/Horn of Africa: On the domestic front a major battle looms between the Kenyan Government and broadcasters over new regulations seeking to take back licenses and vet programmes. Also Kenya has reiterated that the most-wanted genocide fugitive Felician Kabuga was not on their territory.
Southern Sudan has called upon East African governments to intervene and save the peace agreement between itself and Khartoum to avoid relapses into civil war.
After weeks of political wrangling Somalia's most powerful rebel groups, Al Shabaab and Hizbul Islam, have declared war on each other. The Islamist fighters of Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen executed two men, last week accused of spying for CIA and the AMISOM troops. Also Al Shabaab insurgents in Somalia have warned the Republic of Djibouti not to send peacekeepers to the area. Following intensified fighting in the war-torn region, Kenyan government has sealed off its borders with Somalia. The European Union has also suspended its financial support to African Union peacekeepers in Somalia over the delay to account for the past funds. Moreover the east and Horn of Africa regional bloc Igad has appealed for sanctions on Eritrea, claiming that the country and al-Qaeda are financing militant groups in Somalia.

Central Africa: Chad has deplored the delay in deployment of the United Nations peacekeeping mission to its eastern border with Sudan. While in DR Conge the UN is helping in the reintegration of former rebels into the National Army under a recent amnesty programme. Also a British web-hosting firm recently shut down internet and computer servers dedicated to a Hutu rebel force partially responsible for the 1994 Rwandan genocide.

Human Rights and Social Issues in Domestic Politics

West Africa: Nigerian House of Representatives Committee on Diaspora has protested the detention of 723 citizens in China. There are about 57 Nigerians facing the death penalty in Indonesia and China for whom the government’s efforts so far have been in vain. In the meanwhile in the second South America-Africa summit, attended by 8 South American and 20 African presidents, along with a number of vice presidents, prime ministers, foreign ministers and other senior officials from a total of 61 countries, a renewed commitment towards cooperation was made.
Scores of people in the Guinean capital Conakry were killed and injured on 28 September when security forces cracked down on demonstrators protesting the presidential candidature of junta leader Moussa Dadis Camara. Many have been also detained without charge. At the session of the United Nations Human Rights Council the United States called on the leaders of the "unconstitutional governments" of Madagascar and Guinea to step down and hold elections.
In Gambia the Committee on Traditional Practices (GAMCOTRAP) held a sensitization workshop for parliamentarians, members of the judiciary and security personnel on harmful traditional practices.

South Africa: A Zimbabwean journalist and human rights campaigner, Mukoko, who was arrested last year on political charges, has won a court victory against the violation of her rights by the state. Also in Swaziland, Amnesty International has denounced the use of excessive force by correctional services officers against journalists and political activists after a demonstration at one of the country's main prisons turned violent.

East Africa/Horn of Africa: Mediator Kofi Annan and the International Criminal Court chief prosecutor are set to visit Kenya to push for reforms and trial of poll chaos suspects. In the meanwhile in Uganda a total of 5,000 human rights violation cases have been reported against the Police Force. Uganda has also enabled the incremental return of around 1.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) after more than 20 years. While in Somalia civilians are bearing the brunt in the latest upsurge in fighting in the country's troubled south central region. Sudan has called upon the international community through the UN General Assembly for greater commitment to bring about lasting peace. Using the same forum the Tanzanian President called for global assistance to curb youth unemployment in Africa. While in Kenya the government will hand over election violence suspects, thought to include six sitting Cabinet ministers, to The Hague

Central Africa: The Chinese community in Rwanda has launched the first ever China Culture Month. While 300 genocide suspects fleeing the Gacaca courts are reported to have fled into Burundi in the past one month.

Health, Environment and Domestic Politics

West Africa: African leaders through the African Leaders Malaria Alliance (ALMA) are at the forefront of a landmark initiative to fight malaria in the continent, a menace that claims around 1 million lives every year.

South Africa: South African scientists have engineered plants with resistance to a local cassava virus, potentially safeguarding one of the region's staple crops. While Zimbabwe has launched a landmark plan to reduce the impact of H1N1 virus.
In Lesotho a combination of factors, including infrastructure development, overgrazing, cultivation and the resulting erosion, has led to the degradation of wetlands.

East Africa/Horn of Africa: There has been an increase in the number of pandemic HIN1 influenza cases being reported in the East African region. While an Egyptian-funded initiative to remove water hyacinth, a water weed, on lakes Victoria and Kyoga is to be expanded to Rwanda and Burundi.

Central Africa: Rwandan president drummed up international support on behalf of Africa in his address at the special United Nations session debating Climate Change, for a concrete pact. While acute malnutrition has been found to be high in Eastern Chad, a nation where 50 % of deaths of under-five children are caused by it.

Political Economy

West Africa: Five African regional organizations have agreed to jointly tackle issues that lead to high costs of doing business on the continent. Ghana continues to position itself as the investment destination of choice in the sub-region attracting new investments valued at US$111.67 million in the second quarter of 2009, a significant increase of 91.9% compared to the same period in 2008. While Ghana and China are to collaborate for massive exploration of oil that could make Ghana a leading world explorer and hub of the industry in the West African sub-region. A Chinese company is also eyeing water transport sector in Liberia, a welcome development for the government.
The top performers in this year's Index of African Governance are Mauritius, the Seychelles, Cape Verde, and Botswana, Tunisia, Ghana, Algeria, Namibia, South Africa, and São Tomé and Príncipe.

South Africa: Amidst the financial crisis, China has risen to the spot of South Africa’s top trading partner. While in Zimbabwe a debt amounting to U.S. $5.7 Billion has split the Cabinet, as the nation battles to extricate itself from a huge debt trap. Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe has built a personal farming empire from at least five farms where the white owners were forced out under land seizures ordered in 2000. Prompted by media reports, Nestle, the international food company has refused to conduct business with these facilities.

East Africa/Horn of Africa: The Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC) has strongly defended Chinese entrepreneurs amidst increasing public resentment. While in Kenya telecommunication firms are scrambling to reap from the expanding data market.
Corruption and access to finance are the two biggest challenges to doing business in East Africa, the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness report 2009-2010 indicates. In the meanwhile the International Conference on Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) has united against the illicit exploration of minerals. Ugandan Central bank is reviewing sections of the Financial Institutions Act 2004 to introduce Islamic banking. Fresh reports indicate that the rag-tag rebel outfit, Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) continues to illegally exploit minerals in Eastern DR Congo.

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.