Micro Analysis-Week # 79-80; Dated 2nd Aug-15th Aug; Zone 2-Africa

Micro Analysis- Uganda’s 'Lord’s Resistance Army': a two decade rebellion

The Lord's Resistance Army began in 1987 in northern Uganda and southern Sudan, primarily as a group of Acholi supporters of the former head of state, Tito Okello, who was forced out of office by Museveni's NRA in 1986. The group consisted of remnants of the Holy Spirit Movement, with Joseph Kony as its current Spiritual leader. It is accused of widespread human rights violations including murder, mutilation, abduction, sexual enslavement and the conscription of child soldiers. Its leader is also wanted by the International Criminal Court.

After the LRA lost its base in Southern Sudan a couple of years ago, the rebels turned the focus of their attacks mainly on the Democratic Republic of Congo, but also increasingly on Sudan and the Central African Republic.

During a meeting with Congolese President Joseph Kabila earlier this month, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stressed the need for continued cooperation between Ugandan, Congolese, and Central African Republic troops battling LRA rebels. Some 12,500 people in eastern DR Congo have been uprooted since from their homes in attacks by the Ugandan rebel force, spilling over into neighboring Sudan as well. China also has voiced its concerns about the prolonged crisis stating that the ICC indictment of the rebel leader Kony was detrimental to seeking peace, and urged for a political solution.

Over time, the LRA has become a sinister cult with Kony at the centre of its command. With no clear political agenda, the LRA remains one of the least understood rebel movements in the world, Apart from the original LRA manifesto, in which Kony proclaimed that he wanted to overthrow President Yoweri Museveni's government and replace it with one governed by the Biblical Ten Commandments, little else is known of the LRA's philosophy.

The turning point in Kony's rebellion came when he was used as a proxy force by the Sudanese government to attack the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A). However following a 1999 agreement between Uganda and Sudan to cease supporting rebel groups operating on each other's territory, and subsequently improved diplomatic relations, Khartoum says that it has long since stopped supporting the LRA, a claim that Uganda’s government is skeptical about. With many failed attempts at peace settlements, conflict continues to ravage the region.

Questions for discussion:

Does the LRA case depict a trend towards the use of ideology as a convenient tool being used in defence against a dysfunctional system? Is the Nigerian Boko Haram comparable to the Ugandan LRA in this context?

International involvement in conflict resolution seems to hold greater weight and influence in Africa than other parts of the world? Is such international involvement good or bad for a) world peace b) welfare of local states where intervention is made?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Condensed Zonal Summary on Africa for week # 79 & 80- Dated 2nd Aug-15th Aug; Zone 2-Africa

Politics of Security and Conflict Issues

West Africa: In a recent symposium on the envisaged United States of Africa held in Senegal, President Abdoulaye Wade criticized African leaders for putting a premium on the protection of their states' sovereignty working on the assumption that other Africans are foreigners, protecting power against them and also denying African economies larger markets for their products.
The presidents of Liberia, Rwanda and Botswana sent a message to Secretary of State, Mrs. Hilary Clinton, as she embarks upon a seven-nation trip to Africa this week. The four African leaders said the continent seeks not patrons but collaborators who will work "with" rather than "for" the continent.
The Secretary of State Clinton hailed Liberia as a model to other countries regarding reform and reconstruction, after emerging from a 14-year civil war.
While the Chinese ambassador to Nigeria reaffirmed the two nations close ties in trade (approximately at $7 billion), in the backdrop of a recent immigration raid in China, which triggered critical accusations regarding Nigerian immigrants.
The Chinese embassy has also approached the Zambian government, voicing its concerns regarding recent attacks on its citizens.
The Alliance of Youth for Action (AYA) in Ghana has affirmed to challenge the freezing of employment in the public sector for 2 years in the Supreme Court, terming the decision as unconstitutional, insensitive and inhumane.
The results of a national poll in Nigeria showed 65% of Nigerians opposed the provision of the immunity clause for Public Officers in the nation's constitution.
South Africa: Vice-president of Zambia George Kunda has challenged media bodies to come up with a draft Bill for self-regulation within six months; otherwise the government will pass one on its own in the parliament.
East Africa/Horn of Africa: U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Somali President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed in Kenya and pledged to provide more military aid and training to the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG).
According to China the indictment of Sudanese president Omer el-Bashir and the LRA chief Joseph Kony, both wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes and crimes against humanity, is a stumbling block to peace in Africa.
Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai of Zimbabwe recently attacked Zanu PF for its continued violation of the Global Political Agreement (GPA), but still affirmed continuing working on an inclusive government.
While Kenya has challenged member states of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) to implement the pact on security, stability and development to end the cycle of violence in the region.
Central Africa: Landmark meeting between President Paul Kagame of Rwanda and his Congolese counterpart, Joseph Kabila, is expected to go beyond security to encompass trade and joint investment opportunities in different projects.

Human Rights and Social Issues in Domestic Politics

West Africa: 60 Christian and Muslim religious leaders from ten West African States met in Accra, Ghana under the auspices of the Programme for Christian-Muslim Relations in Africa (PROCMURA) on the theme: "Religion and Prevention of Conflict, Peace Building and Reconciliation"
In the after math of the controversial killing of Muhammad Yusuf, leader of Boko Haram, while in custody, questions regarding extra judicial killings of the members of the Nigerian Islamist group, as well as civil populations in the north have been on the rise. The president Umaru Musa Yar’Adua has ordered a probe into the controversial killing of the rebel leader.
Most of the 4,000 Maiduguri residents in northeastern Nigeria who fled last week's violence have now returned home, the Nigerian Red Cross (NRC) reported. While 2 days into the commencement of the federal government's amnesty programme, President Umar Yar'Adua of Nigeria met with 32 leaders of various militant groups from the Niger Delta. Some militants have already started surrendering and the progress is expected to attract more.
The Wassa Association of Communities Affected by Mining (WACAM) in Ghana has criticized the High Court judgment for demolishing a village in a case involving the mining giant AngloGold Ashanti, while calling for proper training of judges on the human rights challenges in the mining industry.
6 journalists have been jailed in Gambia on sedition and criminal defamation charges triggered by a June 11th press release critical of President Yahya Jammeh.
While the leadership of the National Consciousness Movement of Liberia (NCML) has sought permission from the Ministry of Justice to stage a peaceful protest against recommendations by the Truth and Reconciliation commission (TRC) on political exclusion and prosecution of people fearing destabilizing the fragile security situation.
South Africa: Ethiopia is on the defensive over a plan to offer 2.7 million hectares of land to foreign, mainly Asian, companies despite millions crying out for food aid from the international community
While the US. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is visiting South Africa as part of a seven-nation tour of Africa, women issues are part of her agenda in the continent.
2 civil society organizations have asked the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) to investigate and prosecute South African citizens and/or residents implicated for crimes against humanity in Israel's invasion of Gaza in December and January.
Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai said that he could not commit himself to any assistance to exiled Zimbabweans who were living in deplorable conditions in SA, adding that there were millions of citizens in the country suffering due to the absence of economic activity.
SA's Opposition has accused Zimbabwe's President Mugabe of mobilizing his infamous militias ahead of a referendum and an electoral showdown with Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
Two weeks after a tribunal in Hague redefined the borders of Sudan's Abyei region, considerably reducing its size from a previous panel decision in 2005, though both Southern Sudan and the central government - former enemies in a 22-year civil war - have accepted the new boundaries but concerns are still abound. The recent decision has provoked claims from both sides over resources, including oil fields.
East Africa/Horn of Africa: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is considering food security and partnerships as a top agenda in her first official visit to sub Saharan Africa.
In Uganda, the minister for Labour has directed all companies exporting women to other countries to work as housemaids to halt their operations pending investigations into allegations of abuse and harassment.
Kenya will soon have a law to protect albinos a petition was tabled successfully by Mr Eugene Wamalwa (Saboti, PNU), the Ministry of Justice, National Cohesion and Constitutional Affairs, awaiting a final report.
While thousands of refugees are to be immediately moved from the congested Kenya Dadaab Refugee Camp currently hosting 300,000 refugees way above its capacity of 90,000; a drastic crisis which needs immediate humanitarian attention.
The Kenya government is facing internal rebellion over the Truth and Justice Commission (TJRC) being given powers to prosecute post-election violence suspects.
After 3 decades, thousands of Burundian refugees have been granted citizenship by the host Tanzanian Government, the first large-scale naturalization of its kind in Africa.
Also the lack of access has prevented the United Nations from delivering food to 500,000 of its planned 3.3 million beneficiaries in Somalia over the past month
Central Africa: Small scale farmers from twelve African countries (DR. Congo, Somali, Eritrea, Djibouti, Sudan, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, the Comoros and Tanzania) have decided to fight back amid ongoing threats of them being swallowed by large estates at the expense of food security in the continent.
With reports of widespread rape and other atrocities pouring in from the eastern Kivu provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the United Nations mission there has sent some 40 teams to the region over the past six months to bolster the protection of civilians
Also thousands of Congolese have been displaced in latest attacks by Ugandan Rebel Group, the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA).
Senator Beatrice Mukabaranga in Rwanda has stepped down from her seat in the Upper Chamber of Parliament days after the prosecution requested the lifting of her immunity to pave way for investigations over allegedly issuing bouncing cheques.

Health Environment and Domestic Politics

West Africa: The Cross River State Executive Council has approved the award of contracts to tackle the perennial flooding and gully erosion threatening Calabar metropolis during the raining season in Nigeria.
While surprisingly Africa which accounts for about 14% of the world population, is only responsible for 3.5% of global climate changing gases. It was reported at the National dialogue on NEPAD Climate Change Initiative in Nigeria
South Africa: It has been reported in the journal of Nature Medicine a new strain of the virus that causes AIDS has been discovered in a woman from Cameroon. It differs from the three known strains of human immunodeficiency virus and appears to be closely related to a form of simian virus recently discovered in wild gorillas.
The Global Fund, the world's biggest public health donor has given Zimbabwe a grant of US$38m to fight HIV, tuberculosis and malaria for the next 9 months
While Bié Province governor voiced his concern regarding the Uncontrolled Cutting of Trees in Angola.
East Africa/Horn of Africa: African Development Bank (AfDB) has accepted a call from environmental groups to investigate the alleged impact of Ethiopian huge hydro dam projects on Lake Turkana in Kenya.
Central Africa: A 12 member Chinese medical team has arrived in Rwanda as part of the medical assistance being given to the country since 1982. Also, following a 2day bilateral summit between the two countries, China has given Rwanda interest free loans amounting to $37 million to be used for development projects.
The 7th edition of the AIDS-Free Holiday campaign was launched in Cameroon with a focus on Promoting female condoms.
According to a new report in Kenya major rivers in Rift Valley have dried up and the levels of lakes are dropping alarmingly

Political Economy

West Africa: Chinese government has given the go ahead for its planned acquisition of Addax, the Swiss-based oil and gas major. Addax holds assets in Nigeria, Cameroon and Gabon, with a combined 538 million barrels of proven and probable oil reserves.
Federal Government has approved 133 Nigerian Industrial Standards (NIS) as part of an effort to ensure efficient, effective and standardized quality product delivery in the country. The Federal Government has signed an agreement with the Chinese government regarding quality of imports, proclaiming that the dumping of substandard goods had impoverished the country.
While Modern Auto Services Limited (MAS), a leading automobile company in Ghana, has launched the new Lifan range of vehicles. Significantly, all the models have passed the crash and emission standard test of the European Union (EU).
Nigeria’s first terrestrial satellite, SAT-1 which was assembled and launched by a Chinese firm, has been irreversibly damaged amidst speculations about sub standard materials being used. The Chinese company Grid Wall however has reassured immediate replacement with out any further cost.
Also, tagged as the ‘World Trade Tower’, a 65 story building touted as the tallest in Africa is planned for the Tafawa Balewa Square in Lagos.
Following the recent deregulation of the pricing of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO)/diesel, Low Pour Fuel Oil (LPFO) and other ancillary products by the Federal Government, the prices of these products have hit the roof top in Nigeria. About $12 billion is being spent annually on various activities in the oil and gas industry.
South Africa: The Chinese government is to invest $400 million to revive the controversy-plagued Kiwira coal mine in Mbeya Region, Tanzania
Africa's remarkable record of economic growth in recent years has to an important degree been underwritten by the explosive growth of countries like China, said Martyn Davies, director of the Centre for Chinese Studies at South Africa's Stellenbosch University. He added that Africa's growing relations with emerging economies offer both opportunities and risks
Liu Donghye of China Electricity Council International (CEC) said that China is offering its world class technology and equipment in a commercial transaction aimed at meeting SA’s requirement of 55000 MW of electricity capacity by 2025 to satisfy its economic and social development needs.
A Chinese company selling motor bikes announced recently an offer of 30 motorbikes to support the campaign of the ruling Frelimo party, in Mozambique for the presidential, parliamentary and provincial elections, scheduled for 28th October.
The government run Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe (MMCZ) has signed a MOU with Jinchuan Nickl Mining Company of China that might result in the bulk of copper, nickel and cobalt mined in the country being sold in the vast Asian state.
A multibillion-dollar power project on the Congo River involving five African governments might be put on hold because the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) wants to do it alone with the backing of international mining giant BHP Billiton.
East Africa/Horn of Africa:
The 8th Forum on Trade and Economic relations between the US and Africa south of the Sahara (AGOA Forum), started last week in Nairobi, Kenya, global economic environment and political decisions follow up mechanisms were on the agenda. The African Union has been called upon to reform the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), making it more investor friendly. Hillary Clinton, in her address to Agoa summit, also urged the African countries to reduce barriers and increase interstate trade in the continent.
Also the 19th Global Smart Partnership Dialogue ended last week in Uganda with a call to public private partners to heavily invest in infrastructure, human resource, and information, communications technologies (ICTs).
Fears of stinting economic growth have arisen amidst power cuts in Kenya.
Central Africa: The electricity and water utility, Electrogaz, in Rwanda has proclaimed implementation of a durable solution to the water shortage crisis within one month

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Telescopic Analysis-Week # 78; Dated 5th July- 31st July; Zone 2-Africa

Telescopic Analysis:
Technological Progress in Africa

Technological progress is believed to be the golden grail for sustainable development world wide. The activity on the African front in this sector, though not stunning in its proportions, is still note worthy.

On the technology front, Rwanda Internet users in Kigali City will soon be utilizing fast speed mobile wireless Internet called WiBro.
Also In Ghana a competition organized by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) introduced an "Electric Cream" capable of generating intense heat of up to 100 degrees Celsius within four minutes, intended to solve the energy problems of the country. This discovery has been tested and approved by the Chemistry Department of the University of Ghana.

The African Regional Cooperative Agreement for Research, Development and Training Related to Nuclear Science and Technology (AFRA) is currently evaluating the path covered in 20 years, their challenges and what could be done to improve the future.

At the same time as the East African Investment Conference has stated that the region has a huge renewable energy untapped potential, which investors should help the region to exploit.
While a Report commissioned by the African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF) declared that the Chinese Agricultural Boom ‘Holds Lessons for Continent’.

The media is following these reports which suggests an active interest on the domestic front in progressive technology.

Discussion Questions:

§ Is the marginal amount of reported cases of positive developments and trivial resource allocations towards technological progress a weak effort, too little being too late?

§ Is it advisable or even feasible to invest time, effort and limited resources towards innovative technological development in a situation of state attrition and lack of infrastructure with no uniform distribution of resources and limited opportunity development? Do you think it may breed discontent and fuel social conflict?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Microscopic Analysis-Week # 78; Dated 5th July- 31st July; Zone 2-Africa

Microscopic Analysis:

Boko Haram, Nigeria’s Radical Islamic Group:

Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation is roughly equally divided between Christians and Muslims and more than 200 ethnic groups which generally coexist peacefully. The stricter enforcement of Sharia however, in 12 of Nigeria's 36 states in 2000 alienated a sizeable Christian population in the north and sparked clashes which killed thousands.

Recently Violence erupted in the Bauchi state, one of Nigeria’s 12 states enforcing Islamic law. The possible trigger was arrests of the members of a radical Islamic group, Boko Haram, on suspicion of plotting an attack against a police station. Unrest quickly spread to other cities across northern Nigeria. The leader of the sect, Mohammed Yusuf, blamed for days of deadly violence in Nigeria was killed in police custody last week.

The group was founded in 2002 in Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state, by Mohammed Yusuf, a religious teacher. In 2004, it moved to Kanamma in Yobe state, close to the border with Niger, where it set up a base dubbed "Afghanistan", from which it attacked nearby police outposts. Since the group emerged in 2004, they have become known as "Taliban", although they appear to have no links to the Taliban in Afghanistan; though some analysts believe they took inspiration from the radical Afghans. Boko Haram means "Western education is a sin" and is another title used by local people to refer to the group.

The mission of the group is quite straight forward, to overthrow the Nigerian state, impose an extreme interpretation of Islamic law and abolish what they term as "Western-style education and culture". Touting the belief that western education "spoils the belief in one God", the group asserts, among other things, their rejection of Darwinism, the world being sphere and rain resulting from a process of evaporation, which, they believe, is opposed to the religious belief of it being a creation of God.

Boko Haram's members are largely drawn from disaffected youth -university students and jobless graduates among them. Yusuf, the deceased leader of the group was something of an enigma; believed to be in his mid-thirties, he was extremely wealthy and highly educated. In the case of “Boko Haram” there is no alleged link between Quranic schools— i.e., madrasas—and militancy. The members of these groups have been educated in secular schools and universities in Nigeria. However, reportedly the group members burned their degrees and argued that it is in Islamic learning that there is true salvation.

The crack down on the group and allegedly many innocent bystanders in the north has been highly criticized. BBC News Website Africa Editor Joseph Winter says Nigeria's security forces have a terrible reputation for brutality and human rights groups accuse them of frequent extra-judicial killings. More than 100 people were killed as a wave of unrest spread through the north in the wake of the police action. No-one seems to know just how big a threat the so-called Taliban pose, how big their membership is, or what their next move could be.

Discussion Questions:

§ The reports regarding Boko Haram’s activities don’t depict a focus on the Islamist vs. infidels’ stance; rather the attacks, including the recent incident, are directed more towards the state system and the government. To what degree does this reflect a trend towards reverting to ideology as a defense against a dysfunctional state system?

§ Considering the Nigerian state’s deplorable record on human rights violations, in the wake of the questionable circumstances of Muhammad Yusuf’s assassination and the brutal crackdown on populations in the north, to what extent is the state accountable for perpetuating the crisis?

§ Speculations regarding international financing and the cooption of these local factions in international radical networks such as Al-Qaeda are already rampant. What is the likelihood of these probable developments and could they possibly be curbed?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Telescopic analysis: Clinton’s 7-Nation Africa Tour-a carrot and stick policy? Week # 79

Hillary Clinton wrapped up her 7 nation Africa tour last Friday (14th Aug, 2009). The 11-day trip was her first, as the secretary of state, to sub-Saharan Africa, where some had feared the continent was not an early priority for the Obama administration.
Clinton sought to build ties with three African powers -- Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa -- and showed support for three nations recovering from conflict -- Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Liberia --while also stopping in small US ally Cape Verde.
The trip followed a visit to Ghana last month by Obama, where he appealed to Africans to hold their governments accountable and fight corruption. While broadly the message communicated to the continent by Clinton included Obama administration’s commitment to Africa and the affirmation that Africa's people deserve better from their governments; some speculate that there was little new in the way of policy. No fresh initiatives on trade or aid were initiated and nothing concrete was broached about America's future military role in Africa, a controversial subject.
Fears regarding Somalia becoming a new haven for al-Qaeda affiliates were quite significant. The secretary of state conferred with the Somali President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, who is struggling to fend off a three-month-old insurgent offensive. She pledged, on behalf of the US, to provide more military aid and training to the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG).
Africom, the force that oversees US security interests on the continent, remains based in Germany and there was nothing said about possible plans for a military base on African soil.
Along with gender issues, food security and showing support for post civil war progress, the secretary of state also focused on strengthening economic ties with the continent on the whole. Strengthening relations with Nigeria and Angola, two major US suppliers of gas and oil, were also significant. "The administration is placing more responsibility on Africans themselves for resolving their problems and improving economic development," said David H. Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia. "Having said that, I believe the secretary's visit will produce some 'good cop' rhetoric to offset the 'tough cop' remarks of the president."[1]

Questions for Discussion :

· Could America be competing to hold on to a resource rich continent’s attention against China, which seems to be fast gaining a foot hold in Africa?

· Clinton’s agenda for the recent African tour spanned topics including strengthening democratic mores, good governance, fighting corruption, economic ties, gender issues, health issues, post conflict progress and affirmation of American support for the continent. Some opined there was too much on the American plate for the short trip which might hinder credible developments. Would you agree or disagree?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.