Showing posts with label Africa Micro Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Africa Micro Analysis. Show all posts

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Zone 2- Africa: Microscopic Analysis, 'The Universal Democratic Value system- Madagascar, a case in point’, W # 92

Week # 92, Dated 1st - 7th Nov. 09’
Democratic domestic governance has become a global constitutive norm. The fully socialized ‘normal’ state in international society is now expected either already to be democratic or embarked upon a democratization trajectory. Scholarly scrutiny has further contributed to legitimize the process and reinforce the widespread belief that democracy is the natural end point of a ‘normal’ course of political development.[1]
Democracy and democratization has become a part of the mainstream of global dialogue and International and regional bodies reinstate this norm by projecting influence in a globalized world. The Security Council last week welcomed the power-sharing agreement reached by Madagascar's current and former leaders. The four past and present leaders - Andry Rajoelina, Marc Ravalomanana, Didier Ratsiraka and Albert Zafy - struck a deal following talks in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on 6th November.
Madagascar's political rivals have now agreed on posts within a transitional government that will hold power until next year's elections following a power struggle that brought months of volatility to the country. Andry Rajoelina will remain head of state, joined by two co-presidents representing other political factions on the island.
Rajoelina, a 35-year-old former DJ, was mayor of Madagascar's capital of Antananarivo when he overthrew democratically elected President Marc Ravalomanana in March after winning support from the military. The widely denounced takeover followed weeks of protests that claimed dozens of lives. African and Western nations called Rajoelina's takeover a coup, and the African Union and the Southern African Development Community suspended Madagascar's membership.
Mediators helped forge a power-sharing agreement in August but Rajoelina drew criticism for unilaterally forming a new government in September, violating an accord that demanded that all parties agree on appointments. His actions sparked demonstrations by supporters of the deposed former president demanding his return. With the latest power sharing deal in place elections are to be held by November 2010.
According to the AU the regional body would not re-admit Madagascar until the newly agreed power-sharing government is in place and fresh elections in the pipeline.
UN Secretary General Mr. Ban"s spokesperson said the UN would continue to support Madagascar "through the transition and beyond," led by former Mozambican president Joaquim Chissano, who has been working with the African Union (AU), the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the International Organization of the Francophonie to mediate a solution to the political tensions. The Council further affirmed its support for the efforts of the United Nations in the process, including an election consultation team which was sent last week.
Analysts say the deal will allow donors who suspended aid worth hundreds of millions of dollars to resume work with Madagascar without flouting their own democratic ideals. However, some diplomatic sources have said their governments will await the holding of free and fair elections before fully reinstating aid.
This case in point demonstrates how the democratic principle has been established as a universal norm and usually transcends the sovereign bounds of states. It is widely accepted as a value system similar to a moral set of ideals and is stepping up to assume the same status as perhaps genocide prevention and humanitarian intervention.
Even where some literature, especially in the Chinese academia is raising the debate to counter its infallibility, the concept’s strong hold on international imagination surfaces in diplomatic language. Even though in Madagascar’s case international bodies may not be proactively interfering on the domestic front, nevertheless it is quite evident that international pressure propels national leaders along democratic lines.

Discussion Questions:

§ Would you agree that democratic principles have acquired the same standing as genocide prevention or humanitarian intervention?

§ Does diplomatic language over simplify the concept of democracy?

[1] International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 51, No. 3, Sept 07’, ‘Envisioning China’s Political Future: Elite Responses to Democracy as a Global Constitutive Norm’, by David C. Lynch
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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.
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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Zone 2- Africa: Micro Analysis- 'Botswana: Challenging the African Stereotype?W # 89 Dated 11th-17th Oct. 09’

General elections were held in Botswana on 16th October 2009.These were the 10th general elections held since Botswana's independence in 1966, a nation accredited with a history of smooth, periodic elections. The ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) led by President Seretse Khama Ian Khama was re-elected for the next five years with 45 out of a total of 57 parliamentary seats and representing a 53.26 percent of the popular vote, according the Independent Electoral Commission. The BDP has not lost an election since independence in 1966.
The nation is a parliamentary republic and follows a system of Single member plurality, first-past-the-post system multiparty elections. President is elected by each newly elected National Assembly. The phenomenon of limited presidential terms is a new one to Botswana, having been promulgated in the mid 1990s, through which Opposition MP Dumelang Saleshando opined Festus Mogae, the president before Ian Khama, did set a good precedent for the nation.
A group of observers from Southern African Development Community (SADC) Election Observer Mission (SEOM) said the elections were conducted in compliance with the SADC Principles and Guidelines. They further noted that a massive voter registration exercise was conducted in the run up to the election. A record 725 000 people registered to vote and the turnout was largely attributed to voter education by the Independent Electoral Commission IEC and other civic groups including the media. First time voters constituted nearly 30% of the registration indicating an unprecedented interest in elections by the youth of Botswana.
Mr. Khama, The son of Botswana's first president joined politics after a military career and was directly nominated by his predecessor. He is credited with being decisive, but also criticized for being dogmatic. Despite Splits within the president's party, a victory was still forecast since the opposition was believed to be equally fractured.
While there were complaints that the state media, particularly the Botswana Television, was biased towards the ruling party, observers reported that there were attempts to ensure that the station covered all events of the contesting parties without bias.
Botswana, one of Africa's most stable countries, is the continent's longest continuous multi-party democracy. It is relatively free of corruption and has a relatively good human rights record. An economy heavily dependent on diamond trade the recent elections were held amid a deep recession. Botswana's over-dependence on diamonds for its export earnings and tax revenues, as well as jobs and human rights were all major issues that the political parties rallied on.
Critics maintain that Botswana’s immaculate achievement at a macro-economic level has for a long time been accompanied by high levels of unemployment, unacceptable levels of poverty and gross inequalities. A key problem area is over-reliance on the mineral sector, in particular diamonds.
The opposition MP Saleshando believes that despite Botswana’s thriving liberal democracy, the political institutions necessary for providing effective checks and balances are weak in Botswana. Moreover the presidency controls all levers of power while the legislative agenda is set by the executive and parliamentary staff is recruited and deployed as desired by the presidency. Hence despite being widely lauded for its democratic tradition critics still maintain that Botswana is in a highly precarious economic situation with under-developed political institutions that need to be modernized. The nation’s tangible pride in its functional system of governance in a continent rift with stereotypes is however quite apparent.

Discussion Questions:

· Is the Botswana model despite its skewed economic stability through excessive dependence on the diamond industry, still a feasible fit for Africa at large?

· Despite international praise for its success at the polls does the opposition’s claim regarding underdeveloped institutions portray a pseudo democracy in Botswana?

Sources/Related Links
http://allafrica.com/stories/200910231087.html
http://www.thezimbabwean.co.uk/2009102225867/african-perspectives/botswana-general-election-report-2009.html
http://www.mmegi.bw/index.php?sid=2&aid=175&dir=2009/October/Friday9
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8309573.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/country_profiles/1068674.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7297013.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7297374.stm https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bc.html
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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Zone 2- Africa- Micro Analysis-Violence in Guinea- Military Dictatorship, a vicious cycle?- Week # 85-87, Dated 13th Sept- 3rd Oct. 09'

Human rights groups reported at least 157 opposition supporters dead and around 1200 injured after Guinea's troops opened fire on a mass protest in Guinea last week. On September 28th Opposition parties organized the demonstration amid speculation that Moussa Dadis Camara, the country's military leader, would stand in the forthcoming elections. Camara, who has not yet formally announced his intention to contest the January 31 poll, said that the killings were beyond his control.

The protests against Camara's candidature were brutally crushed by the military forces and have invited international condemnation and human rights uproar. The loss of discipline by the military that even the premier claims out of his control, perpetuated a violent assault on human rights in Guinea. The violence was censured by France, Guinea’s former colonizers, at the United Nations as well as by the African Union, where sanctions were already in effect by the latter organization.

Camara, who came to power in a coup on 23 December last year, initially promised to organize elections but has since signaled he has not ruled out running. The military leader had pledged not to stand for the presidency when he seized power after the death of Lasana Conte, the president, essentially considered a military dictator in civilian guise. Camara has reportedly changed his tune proclaiming it his ‘right’ to contest.

Guinea has had a history of authoritarian rule since gaining its independence from France in 1958. Declining economic conditions and popular dissatisfaction with corruption and bad governance prompted two massive strikes in 2006, and a third nationwide strike in early 2007. This latest crackdown has been termed by the Human Rights Watch as "shocking even by the abusive standards of Guinea's coup government".

The destabilizing turn of events in the region follows a history of military dictatorships where even the latest coup, according to analysts, enjoyed popular support initially. However the rising dissatisfaction amongst the nationals has arisen in what is deemed to be a breach of a tacit agreement between the military and civil forces, which had hence far kept Camara in power.

The language of military dictatorships seems to share commonalities world wide as to their conflict of legitimacy. Where international pressures seem to be heeded in similar scenarios in Latin America (the recent Honduran case) or the Asian region (Pakistan being a case in point), the extent of efficacy of these measures in Africa seems puny. The crisis in Guinea continues, and despite efforts at resolution many fear the vicious cycle of dictatorship will continue.

Discussion Questions:

· Would you agree that the military dictatorships in Africa continue to function in relative isolation from international pressures? Why or why not?

· To what extent do strategic interests, for example the possibility of oil development in the region figure in determining the course of Guinea’s political future?

· Under notions of a continent that is defying its stereotypes- does the continued existence of such stunted political systems deem Africa's progress as marginal?

Related Links/Bibliography

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8280603.stm
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2009/09/200992981337765437.html
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/gv.html

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' The blog development project has been undertaken and jointly developed by the Gilani Research Foundation and BPM as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Zone 2- Africa. Microscopic Analysis: Speculations Regarding Nigeria's Global Jihadist Links. Week # 83, dated 30th Aug- 5th Sept

Speculations have been abound about possible Boko Harem links with Al Qaeda with the recent reports regarding a member of the Nigerian rebel group having received his training in Afghanistan. The recent uprising that left around 700 dead in the Northern provinces was triggered by the group Boko Haram, referred to by the locals as the ‘Taliban’. However, so far no apparent link has been discovered between the two.

Recently an alleged member of the sect under police custody has revealed having received military training in Afghanistan. The facts of the confession could not however be immediately verified. Also the suspect’s statements and quotations of large sums of money offered to him were received with skepticism.

For years diplomats have feared a Nigerian al-Qaeda sleeper cell might launch attacks on the country's oil infrastructure, which is increasingly important to the US. BBC reports that Nigeria, with its large number of impoverished, disenfranchised and devoutly Muslim young men, easy access to weapons and endemic corruption may seem to be the ideal breeding ground for anti-western radicals.

Yet analysts remain skeptical about any link between Nigerian radical Muslims and global jihadists. Analysts are of the view that despite having a similar anti western agenda, the goals of Boko Haram are very different from those of al-Qaeda. The name Boko Haram means Western education is a sin and the group primarily aimed at overthrowing Nigeria's government. Adam Higazi a researcher on Nigeria at Oxford University says "The rhetoric of Osama bin Laden may chime with some radical young Muslims in Nigeria, but that doesn't mean there is a financial relationship,".

Many reasons are quoted for such speculations. For example the attacks launched by the radical group were on police stations, armed with machetes, while al-Qaeda tends to use more sophisticated weapons. Moreover it is believed that Nigerian Islamic sects are relatively parochial and inward-looking, concentrating on fighting the Nigerian government rather than a worldwide jihad. Furthermore, the Nigerian state has not collapsed to the same degree as in a country like Somalia where al-Qaeda has significant influence, says Professor John Peel of the School of Oriental and African Studies.

Historically Nigeria has a long history of Islamic uprisings against "corrupt" rulers, dating back to the largest in West Africa's history, the jihad of Usman Dan Fodio in 1804. Dan Fodio unified the Hausa city states under what became known as the Sokoto Caliphate, and many subsequent sects refer to that time as a "golden age". It is then argued that the Nigerian Muslims inclined towards revolutionary thought have their own historical reference points and tend not to look abroad for jihadist inspiration.

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Discussion Questions:

· Do the arguments against the possibility of Boko Haram having credible global linkages hold weight?

· Do you think the Nigerian radical group has the potential to regroup given speculations about its parochial and defunct organization?

· Could underestimating the potential excess to international actors on part of the Boko Haram given the current global environment be a gross miscalculation?

· On the other hand could paranoia about local factions in the nation, as in the case of the recent raiding of Dar Ul-Islam, an Islamic faction living in isolation actually trigger a reaction, becoming a self fulfilling prophecy?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Africa Micro Analysis- Rwanda- a New Model for Africa?- W#84, Dated 6th-12th Sept

Africa Micro Analysis: Rwanda, World’s Top Business Reformer- A new Model for Africa?
Rwanda, having been termed World's top business reformer for the current year by World Bank, is now being touted as a new model for Africa's development. The country has made financial headlines having made the biggest strides in becoming business-friendly, an annual ranking by the World Bank has revealed. It is the first Sub-Sahara African nation to be named the top reformer since the World Bank began its ‘Doing Business report’ in 2003. It jumped 76 places to number 67 on the list primarily by cutting bureaucratic delays to start a business and sell property, making employment laws more flexible and simplifying tax payment.



Many proudly assert that despite the nations turbulent history Rwanda is now well on its way to achieve its ambition of becoming a regional logistics and services hub, asserting itself as a global player. Some even go so far as to assert that perhaps the lack of an African model for development can now be provided by Rwanda's success story.


An African Development Bank group report states that the nation’s economy has been resilient in the face of the shocks emanating from the post-election violence in Kenya and the disruptions in trade. Aid inflows, Foreign Direct Investment, and remittances have risen as a result of reforms and improved economic conditions. Exports have increased but from a low base and FDI inflows remain below the Sub-Saharan Africa average. However, Rwanda receives more aid per capita than its neighbors. [1]


Rwanda's policy innovations are also a paradox, because the country is so aid-dependent. Such countries tend to be more oriented to donor priorities and processes than to developing their own economic policy vision. They also tend to have a low tax effort, because extracting revenue domestically is difficult and politically painful and the governments do not depend on it for revenue. Countries in this position also tend to have little 'ownership' of their own policy space, which is dictated by the political needs of donors. Above all, politics in such countries tends to be distorted because accountability is oriented outwards, towards donors, and not inwards, to domestic constituencies and business interests.[2]

Given such speculations it remains to see how well Rwanda may be able to maintain a delicate balance between foreign aid, investment promotion and national development.


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Discussion Questions:

In your opinion is the spurt of progress in Rwanda sustainable?

Is it too ambitious to tout the policies of this developing nation as a model for Africa as a whole?

Does the paradoxical policy initiatives for a heavily aid dependent country depict promising national ambition?

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[1] http://www.afdb.org/en/countries/east-africa/rwanda/
[2] http://www.aei.org/article/27476, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Micro Analysis- The Sacking of Darul-Islam in Nigeria; Week # 82; Dated 22nd-28th Aug; Zone 2-Africa

Micro Analysis- The Sacking of Darul-Islam in Nigeria

A team of 1,500 armed policemen, operatives of the National Intelligence Agency (NIA), State Security Services and Nigeria Immigration Service invaded the base of the Darul-Islam (Land of Islam) group in Mokwa Local Government Area, Nigeria last week evacuating 3000 members of the group who had resided there in isolation for the past 17 years. A security source said no weapons were found at the sect's enclave.

The raid was conducted on the orders of President Umaru Yar'adua following a letter by the Niger State government complaining that the activities of the sect were inimical to the peace and stability of the state and the country. This incident came in the wake of the violence last moth triggered by the Islamic sect Boko Harem in the Northern provinces though no link has been found between the two sects. The move has been widely condemned by human rights activists and the civil society alike.

The state police commissioner, Mike Zuokumor, told journalists that security reports labeled their activities as 'un-Islamic' and that they had not been "co-operating" with their neighbors. He described them as 'a threat to the security of not only Niger State but the country as a whole'. But on the other hand, another security report quoted in reports described the group as 'non- violent'.

The recent experience in handling the Boko Haram uprising has also put the country in the lime light with reports of high levels of extra- judicial killings allegedly carried out by men of the Nigeria police. Analysts criticize that the de facto invasion of the Darul- Islam enclave was wrongly conceived and badly executed, and was a clear violation of people's right to worship. Recent reports suggest that compensation is going to be provided for the dislocated group. However speculations are still abound as to the damaging consequences of government paranoia.

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Discussion Questions:

· Given the recent upheaval in the country, is the Nigerian government’s extreme caution justifiable?


· Would such extreme measures have been taken, on the basis of said security reports, had the Boko Haram incident not preceded it?


· Could the nature of this government paranoia have actually precipitated the state of insecurity in the country in the first place?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Micro Analysis-Week # 79-80; Dated 2nd Aug-15th Aug; Zone 2-Africa

Micro Analysis- Uganda’s 'Lord’s Resistance Army': a two decade rebellion

The Lord's Resistance Army began in 1987 in northern Uganda and southern Sudan, primarily as a group of Acholi supporters of the former head of state, Tito Okello, who was forced out of office by Museveni's NRA in 1986. The group consisted of remnants of the Holy Spirit Movement, with Joseph Kony as its current Spiritual leader. It is accused of widespread human rights violations including murder, mutilation, abduction, sexual enslavement and the conscription of child soldiers. Its leader is also wanted by the International Criminal Court.


After the LRA lost its base in Southern Sudan a couple of years ago, the rebels turned the focus of their attacks mainly on the Democratic Republic of Congo, but also increasingly on Sudan and the Central African Republic.


During a meeting with Congolese President Joseph Kabila earlier this month, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stressed the need for continued cooperation between Ugandan, Congolese, and Central African Republic troops battling LRA rebels. Some 12,500 people in eastern DR Congo have been uprooted since from their homes in attacks by the Ugandan rebel force, spilling over into neighboring Sudan as well. China also has voiced its concerns about the prolonged crisis stating that the ICC indictment of the rebel leader Kony was detrimental to seeking peace, and urged for a political solution.


Over time, the LRA has become a sinister cult with Kony at the centre of its command. With no clear political agenda, the LRA remains one of the least understood rebel movements in the world, Apart from the original LRA manifesto, in which Kony proclaimed that he wanted to overthrow President Yoweri Museveni's government and replace it with one governed by the Biblical Ten Commandments, little else is known of the LRA's philosophy.


The turning point in Kony's rebellion came when he was used as a proxy force by the Sudanese government to attack the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A). However following a 1999 agreement between Uganda and Sudan to cease supporting rebel groups operating on each other's territory, and subsequently improved diplomatic relations, Khartoum says that it has long since stopped supporting the LRA, a claim that Uganda’s government is skeptical about. With many failed attempts at peace settlements, conflict continues to ravage the region.

Questions for discussion:


Does the LRA case depict a trend towards the use of ideology as a convenient tool being used in defence against a dysfunctional system? Is the Nigerian Boko Haram comparable to the Ugandan LRA in this context?

International involvement in conflict resolution seems to hold greater weight and influence in Africa than other parts of the world? Is such international involvement good or bad for a) world peace b) welfare of local states where intervention is made?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Microscopic Analysis-Week # 78; Dated 5th July- 31st July; Zone 2-Africa

Microscopic Analysis:

Boko Haram, Nigeria’s Radical Islamic Group:

Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation is roughly equally divided between Christians and Muslims and more than 200 ethnic groups which generally coexist peacefully. The stricter enforcement of Sharia however, in 12 of Nigeria's 36 states in 2000 alienated a sizeable Christian population in the north and sparked clashes which killed thousands.

Recently Violence erupted in the Bauchi state, one of Nigeria’s 12 states enforcing Islamic law. The possible trigger was arrests of the members of a radical Islamic group, Boko Haram, on suspicion of plotting an attack against a police station. Unrest quickly spread to other cities across northern Nigeria. The leader of the sect, Mohammed Yusuf, blamed for days of deadly violence in Nigeria was killed in police custody last week.

The group was founded in 2002 in Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state, by Mohammed Yusuf, a religious teacher. In 2004, it moved to Kanamma in Yobe state, close to the border with Niger, where it set up a base dubbed "Afghanistan", from which it attacked nearby police outposts. Since the group emerged in 2004, they have become known as "Taliban", although they appear to have no links to the Taliban in Afghanistan; though some analysts believe they took inspiration from the radical Afghans. Boko Haram means "Western education is a sin" and is another title used by local people to refer to the group.

The mission of the group is quite straight forward, to overthrow the Nigerian state, impose an extreme interpretation of Islamic law and abolish what they term as "Western-style education and culture". Touting the belief that western education "spoils the belief in one God", the group asserts, among other things, their rejection of Darwinism, the world being sphere and rain resulting from a process of evaporation, which, they believe, is opposed to the religious belief of it being a creation of God.

Boko Haram's members are largely drawn from disaffected youth -university students and jobless graduates among them. Yusuf, the deceased leader of the group was something of an enigma; believed to be in his mid-thirties, he was extremely wealthy and highly educated. In the case of “Boko Haram” there is no alleged link between Quranic schools— i.e., madrasas—and militancy. The members of these groups have been educated in secular schools and universities in Nigeria. However, reportedly the group members burned their degrees and argued that it is in Islamic learning that there is true salvation.

The crack down on the group and allegedly many innocent bystanders in the north has been highly criticized. BBC News Website Africa Editor Joseph Winter says Nigeria's security forces have a terrible reputation for brutality and human rights groups accuse them of frequent extra-judicial killings. More than 100 people were killed as a wave of unrest spread through the north in the wake of the police action. No-one seems to know just how big a threat the so-called Taliban pose, how big their membership is, or what their next move could be.
Discussion Questions:

§ The reports regarding Boko Haram’s activities don’t depict a focus on the Islamist vs. infidels’ stance; rather the attacks, including the recent incident, are directed more towards the state system and the government. To what degree does this reflect a trend towards reverting to ideology as a defense against a dysfunctional state system?

§ Considering the Nigerian state’s deplorable record on human rights violations, in the wake of the questionable circumstances of Muhammad Yusuf’s assassination and the brutal crackdown on populations in the north, to what extent is the state accountable for perpetuating the crisis?

§ Speculations regarding international financing and the cooption of these local factions in international radical networks such as Al-Qaeda are already rampant. What is the likelihood of these probable developments and could they possibly be curbed?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.