Zone 2- Africa. Microscopic Analysis: Speculations Regarding Nigeria's Global Jihadist Links. Week # 83, dated 30th Aug- 5th Sept

Speculations have been abound about possible Boko Harem links with Al Qaeda with the recent reports regarding a member of the Nigerian rebel group having received his training in Afghanistan. The recent uprising that left around 700 dead in the Northern provinces was triggered by the group Boko Haram, referred to by the locals as the ‘Taliban’. However, so far no apparent link has been discovered between the two.

Recently an alleged member of the sect under police custody has revealed having received military training in Afghanistan. The facts of the confession could not however be immediately verified. Also the suspect’s statements and quotations of large sums of money offered to him were received with skepticism.

For years diplomats have feared a Nigerian al-Qaeda sleeper cell might launch attacks on the country's oil infrastructure, which is increasingly important to the US. BBC reports that Nigeria, with its large number of impoverished, disenfranchised and devoutly Muslim young men, easy access to weapons and endemic corruption may seem to be the ideal breeding ground for anti-western radicals.

Yet analysts remain skeptical about any link between Nigerian radical Muslims and global jihadists. Analysts are of the view that despite having a similar anti western agenda, the goals of Boko Haram are very different from those of al-Qaeda. The name Boko Haram means Western education is a sin and the group primarily aimed at overthrowing Nigeria's government. Adam Higazi a researcher on Nigeria at Oxford University says "The rhetoric of Osama bin Laden may chime with some radical young Muslims in Nigeria, but that doesn't mean there is a financial relationship,".

Many reasons are quoted for such speculations. For example the attacks launched by the radical group were on police stations, armed with machetes, while al-Qaeda tends to use more sophisticated weapons. Moreover it is believed that Nigerian Islamic sects are relatively parochial and inward-looking, concentrating on fighting the Nigerian government rather than a worldwide jihad. Furthermore, the Nigerian state has not collapsed to the same degree as in a country like Somalia where al-Qaeda has significant influence, says Professor John Peel of the School of Oriental and African Studies.

Historically Nigeria has a long history of Islamic uprisings against "corrupt" rulers, dating back to the largest in West Africa's history, the jihad of Usman Dan Fodio in 1804. Dan Fodio unified the Hausa city states under what became known as the Sokoto Caliphate, and many subsequent sects refer to that time as a "golden age". It is then argued that the Nigerian Muslims inclined towards revolutionary thought have their own historical reference points and tend not to look abroad for jihadist inspiration.

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Discussion Questions:

· Do the arguments against the possibility of Boko Haram having credible global linkages hold weight?

· Do you think the Nigerian radical group has the potential to regroup given speculations about its parochial and defunct organization?

· Could underestimating the potential excess to international actors on part of the Boko Haram given the current global environment be a gross miscalculation?

· On the other hand could paranoia about local factions in the nation, as in the case of the recent raiding of Dar Ul-Islam, an Islamic faction living in isolation actually trigger a reaction, becoming a self fulfilling prophecy?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Africa Micro Analysis- Rwanda- a New Model for Africa?- W#84, Dated 6th-12th Sept

Africa Micro Analysis: Rwanda, World’s Top Business Reformer- A new Model for Africa?
Rwanda, having been termed World's top business reformer for the current year by World Bank, is now being touted as a new model for Africa's development. The country has made financial headlines having made the biggest strides in becoming business-friendly, an annual ranking by the World Bank has revealed. It is the first Sub-Sahara African nation to be named the top reformer since the World Bank began its ‘Doing Business report’ in 2003. It jumped 76 places to number 67 on the list primarily by cutting bureaucratic delays to start a business and sell property, making employment laws more flexible and simplifying tax payment.

Many proudly assert that despite the nations turbulent history Rwanda is now well on its way to achieve its ambition of becoming a regional logistics and services hub, asserting itself as a global player. Some even go so far as to assert that perhaps the lack of an African model for development can now be provided by Rwanda's success story.

An African Development Bank group report states that the nation’s economy has been resilient in the face of the shocks emanating from the post-election violence in Kenya and the disruptions in trade. Aid inflows, Foreign Direct Investment, and remittances have risen as a result of reforms and improved economic conditions. Exports have increased but from a low base and FDI inflows remain below the Sub-Saharan Africa average. However, Rwanda receives more aid per capita than its neighbors. [1]

Rwanda's policy innovations are also a paradox, because the country is so aid-dependent. Such countries tend to be more oriented to donor priorities and processes than to developing their own economic policy vision. They also tend to have a low tax effort, because extracting revenue domestically is difficult and politically painful and the governments do not depend on it for revenue. Countries in this position also tend to have little 'ownership' of their own policy space, which is dictated by the political needs of donors. Above all, politics in such countries tends to be distorted because accountability is oriented outwards, towards donors, and not inwards, to domestic constituencies and business interests.[2]

Given such speculations it remains to see how well Rwanda may be able to maintain a delicate balance between foreign aid, investment promotion and national development.

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Discussion Questions:

In your opinion is the spurt of progress in Rwanda sustainable?

Is it too ambitious to tout the policies of this developing nation as a model for Africa as a whole?

Does the paradoxical policy initiatives for a heavily aid dependent country depict promising national ambition?

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[1] http://www.afdb.org/en/countries/east-africa/rwanda/
[2] http://www.aei.org/article/27476, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Micro Analysis- The Sacking of Darul-Islam in Nigeria; Week # 82; Dated 22nd-28th Aug; Zone 2-Africa

Micro Analysis- The Sacking of Darul-Islam in Nigeria

A team of 1,500 armed policemen, operatives of the National Intelligence Agency (NIA), State Security Services and Nigeria Immigration Service invaded the base of the Darul-Islam (Land of Islam) group in Mokwa Local Government Area, Nigeria last week evacuating 3000 members of the group who had resided there in isolation for the past 17 years. A security source said no weapons were found at the sect's enclave.

The raid was conducted on the orders of President Umaru Yar'adua following a letter by the Niger State government complaining that the activities of the sect were inimical to the peace and stability of the state and the country. This incident came in the wake of the violence last moth triggered by the Islamic sect Boko Harem in the Northern provinces though no link has been found between the two sects. The move has been widely condemned by human rights activists and the civil society alike.

The state police commissioner, Mike Zuokumor, told journalists that security reports labeled their activities as 'un-Islamic' and that they had not been "co-operating" with their neighbors. He described them as 'a threat to the security of not only Niger State but the country as a whole'. But on the other hand, another security report quoted in reports described the group as 'non- violent'.

The recent experience in handling the Boko Haram uprising has also put the country in the lime light with reports of high levels of extra- judicial killings allegedly carried out by men of the Nigeria police. Analysts criticize that the de facto invasion of the Darul- Islam enclave was wrongly conceived and badly executed, and was a clear violation of people's right to worship. Recent reports suggest that compensation is going to be provided for the dislocated group. However speculations are still abound as to the damaging consequences of government paranoia.

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Discussion Questions:

· Given the recent upheaval in the country, is the Nigerian government’s extreme caution justifiable?

· Would such extreme measures have been taken, on the basis of said security reports, had the Boko Haram incident not preceded it?

· Could the nature of this government paranoia have actually precipitated the state of insecurity in the country in the first place?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Condensed Zonal Summary on Africa for week # 82- Dated 22nd- 28th Aug, 2009

Politics of Security and Conflict Issues

West Africa: Militants in Rivers state Nigeria are embracing the presidential amnesty, where eighty former rebels have so far availed it. While Nigeria has regained confidence of United Nations with the re-equipment and re-kitting of its troops serving under the Nigerian Contingents in the United Nations African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) and the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL). The Senegalese police unit has joined the African Union-UN Peacekeeping Force in Darfur.
National Chairman of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) said that the violence in Niger Delta would not stop in spite of the President’s amnesty package. He proclaimed democratic leadership as the only viable option.
South Africa: In South Africa, Home Affairs plans to launch induction for asylum seekers. While camp dwelling IDP victims of the 2007 post-election violence vowed to boycott the count, accusing the South African government of neglect. In the mean while the constitution-making process has ground to a halt because of disagreements, infighting and a lack of funds in Zimbabwe.
South Africa's President Jacob Zuma, current chairman of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), was scheduled to make his first state visit to Zimbabwe on 27 August 2009.
East Africa/Horn of Africa: The International Criminal Court has begun preparations for trials on Kenya's post election violence as efforts towards a local tribunal are frustrated by political wrangles.
While in Tanzania despite the government’s warnings for the Muslim leaders against issuing a document similar to the controversial Catholic booklet containing guidelines on how to choose leaders in next year's General Election, a group of Imams is expected to launch one soon. The Muslim Council of Tanzania however has distanced itself from the said document.
Djibouti and Nigeria are expected to send peacekeepers to Somalia according to state officials. Mozambican President Armando Guebuza recently met four main political actors in Madagascar, the self-proclaimed President, Andry Rajoelina, the deposed President Marc Ravalomanana and former Heads of State Didier Ratsiraka and Albert Zafy. The meeting was a second round of negotiations with formation of a transitional government on the agenda.
The Islamic administration officials of Hisbul Islam in Somalia have joined the Islamic administration of Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen in the region according to reports. While four people were killed in the Somali capital Mogadishu after insurgents attacked an important government checkpoint.
Central Africa: Civilians in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continue to flee Ugandan rebel attacks under the Lord’s Resistance Army.
The United Nations is considering revising the mandate of its peacekeeping forces in the DRC and Southern Sudan to join the hunt for LRA leader Joseph Kony. While a mutiny over pay, by a section of the army in the eastern DRC is heightening fear, say officials, as farther north an escalation in attacks by LRA rebels has prompted large-scale displacement.
Gabon has gone to the polls to elect a new president nearly three months after the death of President Omar Bongo Ondimba at the age of 73.

Human Rights and Social Issues in Domestic Politics

West Africa: The Executive Director of the Rescue Alternative Liberia (RAL), shared that consultative meetings were to be held to draft an anti torture bill under the country's criminal justice system. Mean while in Sierra Leon custom has been slow to yield to the new inheritance law providing aid for disadvantaged widows and orphans.
According to the research group Open Society Initiative for West Africa some of the highest-ranking teachers of Islam, known as marabouts, are responsible for trafficking children through Niger to neighboring countries to beg. Also the Nigerian state government recently evacuated over 3,000 members of an Islamic group who had over the years isolated themselves in Mokwa town. The move was amid apprehensions following recent upheavals by Boko Haram in the north last month.
South Africa: China is building an agricultural research centre near Maputo in Mozambique, expected to be completed by the first quarter of 2010. The centre will boast agricultural laboratories and crop-testing areas, and will also undertake aquaculture research. While the Zambia Widows Network Association (ZAWNA) has said that most people in the country are ignorant about their legal rights, and continued to suffer injustices.
Malawi's president, Bingu wa Mutharika, has come under severe pressure from civil society groups demanding he scrap a newly-passed bill allowing 16 year olds to marry, in violation of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC).
East Africa/Horn of Africa: According to research presented at the Forum for the Study of Foreign Policy program in Ethiopia African countries benefit more from relations with China and India then with the west. While the 2nd annual U.S. Africa Command Academic Symposium came to an end recently where academics from Africa, Europe and the United States had come together to enhance their understanding of Africa Command and offer input on how best to support peace and stability in Africa.
Ugandan Muslim intellectuals want the role of the Mufti removed from day-to-day management of Muslim affairs to strictly spiritual functions. This was in lieu of Mufti Ramadhan Mubajje’s involvement in a property wrangle that has left the Muslim community divided into two factions. Also the Uganda Muslim Teachers Association (UMTA) revealed that they have asked government to remove all non-Muslim head teachers from Muslim-founded schools.
The African Union (AU) commission on human and peoples' rights has warned Uganda government against torturing suspects. In the mean while IRIN revealed that several thousand IDPs are facing a food crisis in Somalia where food deliveries have been halted to the town of Jowhar.
Central Africa: With a view of enhancing the country's science and technology human resource base, the Student's Financing Agency of Rwanda (SFAR) in partnership with Chinese and US universities have sponsored 61 students to upgrade their studies.
A Cameroon government human rights commission said that rights violations in prisons persists in the face of authorities' "indifference". In the mean while the controversy surrounding the encroachment of Gishwati forest in Rwanda has taken a new twist with 289 families facing immediate eviction. The government is being accused of persecuting the poor and showing partiality towards the rich.

Health, Environment and Domestic Politics

West Africa: The Burkina Faso government has shut down more than 20 health clinics in a nationwide campaign to eliminate illegal set ups. While in Ghana the non-governmental organization Action for Rural Education (ARE) has initiated a one-year project known as Health Education Awareness and Literature (HEAL 11) to address HIV related issues. In Nigeria local media reported that environmentally sound management (ESM) practices in e-waste, i.e. Waste Electrical Electronic Equipment (WEEE), is virtually absent.
South Africa: Zambia government has bemoaned the continued increase in deforestation in Eastern Province due to land encroachments into forest reserves.
East Africa/Horn of Africa: AU African ministers at the Conference of Africa Heads of States in Ethiopia agreed this week to demand US$67 billion per year from the global community in compensation for the effects of climate change. Also on the agenda was the coordination of a common African union position for the upcoming global summit on climate change, in Copenhagen. While malnutrition woes have arisen in Kenya beyond the WHO global acute malnutrition threshold. Also debate on the destruction of Mau Complex, one of the five water towers of Kenyan agri-economy, due to deforestation, has been highlighted.
Central Africa: Disease is threatening to devastate banana production, a staple, in 10 African countries, including Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania. Also while antiretroviral therapy (ART) is giving hope for HIV-infected patients in Rwanda, it fails to reach many. A mutual health insurance scheme is under scrutiny in a bid to reduce poverty and improve the wellbeing of Cameroonians.

Political Economy

West Africa: Trouble is simmering in oil communities of Ghana for alleged exclusion of locals from the exploration activities. While the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) in Nigeria has recovered N25.5 billion from loan defaulters.
South Africa: Zimbabwe and South Africa have signed a four-year agreement to promote safe labour migration between the two countries.
Central Africa: In Uganda 2 billion barrels of oil has been confirmed with expectations of increase with continued exploration. However a commission to study renewable energy sources has also been set up to find long lasting solutions to the energy deficit. While in Tanzania two giant coal projects are expected to inject 1,000mw into the national grid. Also Rwanda's only cement factory, Cimerwa is set to begin using peat, a coal-like fossil fuel, for energy production.
In the mean while Rwandan exporters struggle to meet criteria for African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) products under speculations that Africa still takes too little advantage of the trade facility.

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

Condensed Zonal Summary on Africa for week # 81- Dated 16th-22nd August, 2009

Politics of Security and Conflict Issues

West Africa: Nigeria has begun campaigning for the UN Security Council seat. On its domestic front Nigerian Militants from three different camps turned in their arms in appreciation of the amnesty package offered by President Umar Musa Yar'Adua. In the aftermath of religious violence in the North, there has been an initiative by 19 governors from the region to monitor the activities of all religious groups, to forestall a recurrence of the Boko Haram menace. Also the country has reiterated its pledge to contribute troops to peacekeeping efforts in Somalia, while a batch of its peace keeping battalion has just returned from Liberia.
Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger-Delta (MEND) has voiced concerns about threat to the recent ceasefire it declared consequent upon the release of its leader, Henry Okah by the Federal Government.
Government in Ghana has made efforts to facilitate the Bawku Inter-Ethnic Peace Committee. Also the prosecutor of the Special Court for Sierra Leone has urged the Liberian Government to go after the millions of dollars allegedly pocketed by former Liberian President convicted by the ICC, Charles Taylor.

South Africa: A Task Force on corruption is continuing to investigate former president Fredrick Chiluba's involvement in an arms deal in which Zambia lost US$20 million. The MDC (Movement for Democratic Change) in Zimbabwe has accused the State of selective application of law, where violence against its supporters has gone unchecked.
East Africa/Horn of Africa: Former South African President Thabo Mbeki is chairing an AU panel charged with helping to bring peace to Darfur by making recommendations as an alternative to the ICC indictments, while a joint AU-UN peace keeping operation in Darfur also convened a round table discussion. Lt. Gen. Patrick Nyamvumba has recently been appointed by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as overall Force Commander for the United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID). While the United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur has established a gender crime special investigations unit.
‘Qadi courts’ have been under debate in the Kenyan constitution. Also a new law on the ‘state of emergency’ has been approved in Somalia, with vague implications for strife wreaked Mogadishu. While More Ethiopian troops have reached Hiran region in central Somalia, just as heavy fighting is continuing in parts of the region. Suspected Islamist insurgents stormed a U.N. aid compound in southern Somalia while the radical Islamist group Hizbul Islam has threatened to double attacks against the country's transitional government during Ramadhan.
While President Museveni of Uganda has advised against allowing foreigners to buy large chunks of land in order to grow food.

Central Africa: Rwandese forces gear up for the 2nd edition of the All Africa Military Games set for September in Nigeria. Court summons have been dispatched for former State Minister for Primary and Secondary Education in Rwanda, to explain his alleged role in a tender scam.

Human Rights and Social Issues in Domestic Politics

West Africa: Ghana’s news paper ‘Public Agenda’ has won the Human Rights Award instituted by the Ghana Journalists Association (GJA) in the 14th GJA ceremony.
South Africa: The Independent Development Trust (IDT) annual community dialogue on social cohesion is a platform to discuss support for the African Union through international African Diaspora.
South African President Jacob Zuma's the country's fourth democratic president is targeting the racially skewed pattern of land ownership inherited from apartheid and the alleviation of rural poverty, in an effort to rectify land and agrarian reform. While a mammoth draft bill on child care and protection is nearing completion in Namibia. While in Zimbabwe it has been announced that diamonds will not be banned despite Human Rights Abuses. The Human Rights Associations Forum (FADH) in Mozambique has reiterated police abuses in the country.
East Africa/Horn of Africa: Signs are emerging of some narrowing of differences over the sharing of Nile waters, amidst discussions of how threats such as climate change, trans-boundary disputes and the negative fallout from military conflicts are impacting an already water scarce continent. The general secretary of the Association of European Parliamentarians for Africa (AWEPA) pointed out how Africa contributing least to the emissions causing climate change, is hardest hit by their effects.
The arrest and commencement of court proceedings against two Uganda Newspaper editors has drawn wide condemnation. While the East African Community has asserted that the army should be out of Parliament and the presidential term limits in all the five partner states be included in the new EA Treaty. The first batch of refugees in a critically overcrowded Kenyan camp has been relocated by the UN.

Central Africa: 27 Rwandese women were convicted for genocide The United Nations refugee agency has highlighted the plight of a group of over 2,000 displaced civilians who are living in a remote area of northern Central African Republic (CAR).
The United Nations peacekeeping operation in the DR Congo is providing medical assistance to the victims of a recent deadly attack by armed militiamen.

Health, Environment and Domestic Politics

West Africa: The Nigerian Government has spent N200 Million on natural disasters' victims. Also enhanced management of sickle cell disorders in the country has been made possible with the official commissioning of a state-of-the-art laboratory for pre-natal DNA analysis.
While in Lagos, Nigeria people are demanding compensation for the damages caused following the deposition of alleged toxic sludge. Also the Federal Government has approved a set of guidelines to govern the deployment of resources from the Ecological Fund to implement projects aimed at checking environmental degradation.
Reportedly 1 billion people live in Africa and are expected to double in number by 2050.

South Africa: In South Africa as panic over swine flu continues to mount, health experts say TB is still the most serious threat facing the country. While in Zimbabwe five schoolchildren have contracted the deadly swine flu virus.
Mozambique's Council of Ministers has approved two major projects for the production of bio-fuels, as part of Government's strategy to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels. In Nigeria too Ekiti State Governor has donated land for an Ethanol project to Chinese investors along these lines. While a leading sustainable energy researcher has proposed over hauling South Africa’s industrial policy if the country is to address the close correlation between economic growth and fossil fuel consumption.

East Africa/Horn of Africa: As calm returns to Northern Uganda, people in IDP camps for over 20 years have begun to return to their homes and have encroached on forest land causing problems for environment protection agencies. Also members of Parliament in the country have suggested that HIV/Aids testing and counseling be made compulsory. While Lake Victoria pollution has put 40 million people at risk.
Malaria remains a huge obstacle to national development in Tanzania and is a key target in policies.

Central Africa: In Senegal new arrests and convictions for same-sex relations been met with outrage by the International Gay and Lesbian Human Rights Commission (IGLH) Rwanda is on alert as Swine Flu Strikes DRC.
A steering committee for Congo’s Basin Forest was created this month in the Conference of Dense Forest and Humid Ecosystems of Central Africa (CEFDHAC). While the UN Ambassador for the year of the Gorilla has called for protection of mountain Gorillas in Rwanda saying they play a vital role in the protection of the environment.

Political Economy

West Africa: Namibia's participation at the World Expo 2010 has been launched; a platform to boast the country's image as a destination for investment, trade and tourism. While calling for local help the Chinese government has reiterated its commitment to quality product export.
Private Networks Nigeria Limited (PNN), a leading Pan-African technology service, has announced plans to provide 100% visibility in the country through solar powered lights. The Ghana Police Service (GPS) has been hit by a major fuel shortage.

South Africa: South Africa and the oil-rich Angola have signed a number of trade agreements including cooperation in the oil sector, following major bilateral talks.

East Africa/Horn of Africa: A leading manufacturer of electrical products in Kenya, Power Technics Limited, is seeking to up its alternative energy products amidst power rationing in the country. Also the government of Norway has given Uganda a grant worth shs78 billion to support its Oil sector.

Central Africa: The fight to control Congo’s mineral wealth is a key driver of violent conflict in the country. The recent killing of civilians near the Bisie cassiterite mine in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is a stark reminder.
While the European Union has agreed to finance studies of the mechanisms and modalities of the joint exploitation of methane gas from Lake Kivu for Rwanda and the DR Congo. The joint extraction is expected to generate 200 megawatts of energy.

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.