Thursday, September 24, 2009

Zone 2- Africa. Microscopic Analysis: Speculations Regarding Nigeria's Global Jihadist Links. Week # 83, dated 30th Aug- 5th Sept

Speculations have been abound about possible Boko Harem links with Al Qaeda with the recent reports regarding a member of the Nigerian rebel group having received his training in Afghanistan. The recent uprising that left around 700 dead in the Northern provinces was triggered by the group Boko Haram, referred to by the locals as the ‘Taliban’. However, so far no apparent link has been discovered between the two.

Recently an alleged member of the sect under police custody has revealed having received military training in Afghanistan. The facts of the confession could not however be immediately verified. Also the suspect’s statements and quotations of large sums of money offered to him were received with skepticism.

For years diplomats have feared a Nigerian al-Qaeda sleeper cell might launch attacks on the country's oil infrastructure, which is increasingly important to the US. BBC reports that Nigeria, with its large number of impoverished, disenfranchised and devoutly Muslim young men, easy access to weapons and endemic corruption may seem to be the ideal breeding ground for anti-western radicals.

Yet analysts remain skeptical about any link between Nigerian radical Muslims and global jihadists. Analysts are of the view that despite having a similar anti western agenda, the goals of Boko Haram are very different from those of al-Qaeda. The name Boko Haram means Western education is a sin and the group primarily aimed at overthrowing Nigeria's government. Adam Higazi a researcher on Nigeria at Oxford University says "The rhetoric of Osama bin Laden may chime with some radical young Muslims in Nigeria, but that doesn't mean there is a financial relationship,".

Many reasons are quoted for such speculations. For example the attacks launched by the radical group were on police stations, armed with machetes, while al-Qaeda tends to use more sophisticated weapons. Moreover it is believed that Nigerian Islamic sects are relatively parochial and inward-looking, concentrating on fighting the Nigerian government rather than a worldwide jihad. Furthermore, the Nigerian state has not collapsed to the same degree as in a country like Somalia where al-Qaeda has significant influence, says Professor John Peel of the School of Oriental and African Studies.

Historically Nigeria has a long history of Islamic uprisings against "corrupt" rulers, dating back to the largest in West Africa's history, the jihad of Usman Dan Fodio in 1804. Dan Fodio unified the Hausa city states under what became known as the Sokoto Caliphate, and many subsequent sects refer to that time as a "golden age". It is then argued that the Nigerian Muslims inclined towards revolutionary thought have their own historical reference points and tend not to look abroad for jihadist inspiration.

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Discussion Questions:

· Do the arguments against the possibility of Boko Haram having credible global linkages hold weight?

· Do you think the Nigerian radical group has the potential to regroup given speculations about its parochial and defunct organization?

· Could underestimating the potential excess to international actors on part of the Boko Haram given the current global environment be a gross miscalculation?

· On the other hand could paranoia about local factions in the nation, as in the case of the recent raiding of Dar Ul-Islam, an Islamic faction living in isolation actually trigger a reaction, becoming a self fulfilling prophecy?

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Business and Politics in the Muslim World (BPM)refers to the project entitled, "Globalized Business and Politics: A View from the Muslim World.' This project has been undertaken and developed by the Gilani Research Foundation as a free resource and social discussion tool.

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